Midterm Election Update: Florida, Alaska, Wyoming & California Primary Recap

Tuesday's four-state slate set the November field and delivered a mixed verdict on President Trump's clout — with three endorsement losses, a Democratic upset in Florida, and an Alaska Senate rematch that could tip the chamber.

Tuesday's four-state slate set the November field and delivered a mixed verdict on President Trump's clout. His marquee picks won — Byron Donalds for Florida governor, Ashley Moody for Florida's Senate seat, and Harriet Hageman for Wyoming's — but three Trump-endorsed candidates lost: Rep. Cory Mills in Florida's 7th, Catalina Lauf in the open FL-19, and Superintendent Megan Degenfelder, who fell to state Sen. Eric Barlow in Wyoming's governor primary. Democrats had their own surprise, as progressive state Rep. Angie Nixon upset the far-better-funded Alex Vindman for Florida's Senate nomination. In Alaska, Sen. Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola both advanced toward a November rematch that could help decide Senate control, and California's 14th stayed Democratic. With Florida's aggressive new map now tested, the fall's competitive districts are coming into focus.

Key takeaways

Trump's mixed night: wins for Donalds, Moody, and Hageman; losses for Mills (FL-7), Lauf (FL-19), and Degenfelder (WY governor).
Democratic upset: Angie Nixon beat Vindman for Florida's Senate nod despite being outspent roughly ten to one.
Marquee generals set: Donalds (R) vs. Jolly (D) for governor; Moody (R) vs. Nixon (D) for Senate.
Alaska could tip the Senate: Sullivan and Peltola advance to a ranked-choice general rated a toss-up.
Florida's new map: Democrats' clearest fall targets are the 13th (Luna), 27th (Salazar), and the open 7th.

Florida — Governor

Donalds vs. Jolly. Rep. Byron Donalds won the Republican nomination with about 48 percent, leading Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, former state House Speaker Paul Renner, and investor James Fishback from start to finish on the strength of an early Trump endorsement and a war chest that approached $100 million. He would be Florida's first Black governor. He faces former Rep. David Jolly, who took the Democratic nomination with about 61 percent and named former Rep. Gwen Graham as his running mate. Donalds has already begun drawing cultural contrasts with Jolly. Given Florida's rightward shift and a GOP voter-registration edge, Donalds enters the fall the clear favorite, though Gov. Ron DeSantis's decision not to endorse remains a subplot.

Florida — U.S. Senate (Special)

Moody vs. Nixon. Appointed Sen. Ashley Moody comfortably won the Republican nomination to serve the final two years of Marco Rubio's term. The surprise was on the Democratic side: progressive state Rep. Angie Nixon, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, defeated retired Army Lt. Col. Alex Vindman roughly 54 to 46, even though Vindman raised about $16 million and outspent her by an order of magnitude. The result underscores the tension between the Democratic establishment and its progressive wing; Moody enters the general the favorite in a race Democrats had hoped to elevate.

Florida — Congress

The new map's first test. Florida's mid-decade map — drawn to favor Republicans in 24 of 28 seats — produced two incumbent-adjacent upsets that doubled as Trump-endorsement losses, plus a clear set of fall battlegrounds.

Upsets and Trump-endorsement losses

In the 7th (Trump +12), Rep. Cory Mills — the state's most scandal-clouded incumbent — lost the Republican primary to former news anchor Ryan Elijah; DeSantis had said he did not support Mills, and Trump left him off a late endorsement list after backing him in February. In the open, deep-red 19th (Donalds's former seat), local businessman Jim Schwartzel defeated Trump-endorsed Catalina Lauf in a "carpetbagger" field that included former Reps. Madison Cawthorn and Chris Collins.

Democratic flip targets

In the Tampa Bay–area 13th, Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (unopposed) will face retired Army Brig. Gen. Leela Gray, who won the Democratic primary with about 65 percent. In the Miami-area, Hispanic-majority 27th, Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar cruised (~81 percent) and will meet former CBS Miami anchor Eliott Rodriguez, who beat former Jan. 6 committee counsel Robin Peguero 54–46. Both seats are DCCC priorities, though Salazar and Luna start favored. In the 25th (Trump +9), Rep. Jared Moskowitz turned back a democratic-socialist challenger and will face former Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer, and in the 14th (redrawn to lean Republican), Mike Beltran won the GOP nod to challenge Rep. Kathy Castor.

Notable holds and open seats

Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz survived a contentious 20th-District Democratic primary. In the open, safe-Democratic 24th (retiring Rep. Frederica Wilson), Miami-Dade Commissioner Oliver Gilbert narrowly edged State Sen. Shevrin Jones. Republicans held serve in their open seats: Austin Rogers, a former Rick Scott aide, took the 2nd; Rep. Randy Fine won the 6th; and Sydney Gruters, wife of RNC Chair Joe Gruters, won the 16th (~64 percent) to succeed retiring Rep. Vern Buchanan. In the open 22nd, Republican Casey Askar and Democrat Pia Dandiya won their primaries.

Wyoming

Senate. Rep. Harriet Hageman won the open Republican Senate primary with about 63 percent to succeed retiring Sen. Cynthia Lummis; she faces Democrat James Byrd, who won his primary in a landslide, in a seat Republicans are heavily favored to hold.

Governor — a Trump setback. State Sen. Eric Barlow won the four-way Republican gubernatorial primary, defeating Trump-endorsed Superintendent Megan Degenfelder and 2022 candidate Brent Bien (roughly 58,800 to 38,700 to 30,800). Barlow faces Democrat Ken Casner, who ran unopposed, and Constitution Party nominee Rebecca Bextel; the Cook Political Report rates the seat likely Republican.

House. Secretary of State Chuck Gray narrowly won the crowded, nine-way Republican primary for Hageman's open at-large House seat (about 25 percent to Steve Friess's 20 percent) and is heavily favored against Democrat Lisa Kinney in November.

Alaska

Senate — a November rematch that could tip the chamber. Under Alaska's top-four system, Sen. Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola both advanced from a 16-candidate field, with Peltola narrowly leading the first count (about 47 to 44 percent). The two meet again in a ranked-choice general that forecasters rate a toss-up and one of a handful that could decide Senate control. The unrelated, same-named "Dan Sullivan" on the ballot — now the subject of a federal investigation — ran a distant third.

House and governor. Rep. Nick Begich led the U.S. House field (~48 percent) and advanced alongside independent Bill Hill (~29 percent). The open governor's race — Gov. Mike Dunleavy is term-limited — remained unsettled overnight, with Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins leading the early count and Bernadette Wilson the top Republican; Begich's uncle, Democrat Tom Begich, is also running.

California — CA-14 Special

In the deep-blue East Bay seat vacated by former Rep. Eric Swalwell, the two Democrats split closely: state Sen. Aisha Wahab held a narrow lead over BART Board President Melissa Hernandez (about 51 to 49 percent), a margin too tight to formally call overnight. The seat stays Democratic regardless, marginally narrowing the House GOP majority, and the two will meet again in November for a full term.

Results board — November matchups

Race Republican Democrat FL Governor Byron Donalds David Jolly FL U.S. Senate (special) Ashley Moody Angie Nixon (upset Vindman) FL-2 (open) Austin Rogers — (safe R) FL-7 Ryan Elijah (ousted Mills) Bale Dalton FL-13 (D target) Rep. Anna Paulina Luna Leela Gray FL-14 Mike Beltran Rep. Kathy Castor FL-16 (open) Sydney Gruters — (solid R) FL-19 (open) Jim Schwartzel (beat Lauf) — (safe R) FL-20 — (safe D) Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz FL-22 (open) Casey Askar Pia Dandiya FL-24 (open) — (safe D) Oliver Gilbert FL-25 Scott Singer Rep. Jared Moskowitz FL-27 (D target) Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar Eliott Rodriguez WY U.S. Senate (open) Rep. Harriet Hageman James Byrd WY Governor (open) Eric Barlow (beat Degenfelder) Ken Casner WY U.S. House (open) Chuck Gray Lisa Kinney AK U.S. Senate Sen. Dan Sullivan Mary Peltola — RCV toss-up AK U.S. House Rep. Nick Begich Bill Hill (I) — RCV CA-14 (special) — (safe D) Wahab narrowly leads Hernandez

Issues to monitor

The limits of the endorsement. Trump's headline picks won, but three losses in one night — Mills, Lauf, and Degenfelder — suggest local factors and candidate quality still cut against a national endorsement, a dynamic worth tracking through the fall primaries.

Democratic direction. Nixon's upset and the progressive-vs.-establishment undercurrents in several House primaries will shape the party's messaging debate in red-leaning Florida.

Florida's fall map. The clearest competitive seats are now defined: the open 7th, plus Democratic targets in the 13th and 27th. Watch national committee spending as those matchups firm up.

Alaska and Senate control. The Sullivan–Peltola rematch, decided by ranked choice, is among the handful of races that could determine the majority; the final top-four order and turnout are the early signals.

Latrice PowellAugust 20, 2026